One of the best horse races in the world will commence at Paris Longchamp after some long, anticipating months, but this Sunday, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is finally set to play out. The draw has been made, and the entries are in, and here are all of my closing thoughts, and what each horse will have to offer on Sunday.
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Can one of the Aidan O’Brien Double win him and Ballydoyle his third Arc?
Aidan O’Brien wasn't short on talent when choosing who he would school for the Arc this season, but ever since that Cheshire Oaks winning performance by Minnie Hauk at the start of the season, it was clear the big one in Longchamp was the aim. After being successful at two, Minnie Hauk has had a really impressive three year old career, winning the Cheshire Oaks at Chester, the Betfred Oaks at Epsom, the Irish Oaks at the Curragh, and the Yorkshire Oaks at the Ebor festival, four class one races, and four very good pieces of form.
Epsom form can always be seen as tricky due to the tough course, and the Cheshire Oaks isn't always a great race, however beating stablemate Whirl at Epsom was a big statement win, however the Oaks form all together isn't so impressive. We have probably yet to see the best of Minnie Hauk, but beating Estrange at York on unfavoured ground, some weak competition at the Curragh isn't something that screams arc winner not having seen her against any other competitor, however the fillies and three year old allowance, while also drawing number one in the stalls is a massive advantage, however I believe the competition will be a little too much for Minnie Hauk and Cristophe Soumillion come Sunday.
Nevertheless, O'Brien's chances don’t end there. Having Los Angeles in the Westerberg colours at a current price of 28/1 is crazy in my opinion, and is definitely an each way price in itself. Being a multi-time winner over a mile and a quarter this season, Los Angeles was always the initial horse to be trained for the arc, and despite some unflattering results in the latter stages of the season, he is still way too overpriced. Beating Arc competition Kalpana and White Birch in the group one Tattersalls Gold Cup in May is already some very solid form compared to Minnie Hauk, and has proven that Los Angeles has the staying ability over some of the best, and has already transferred his skills over a mile and a half.
However since the Gold Cup victory at the Curragh, a fifth place finish behind the likes of Ombudsman, See the Fire, and Anmaat wasn't a very eye-catching run, however the pace set by the pacemaker being too strong may have been the cause for Los Angeles’ slow finish during the Prince of Wales at Ascot. Personally, Ascot form can always be written off, and not taken 100%, but it was what Los Angeles went on to do after which showed a much brighter sign headed towards his race in Longchamp.
Finishing fourth in a group three behind Aga Khan duo Zahrann and Tangapour probably wasn't Aidan O’Brien's idea of improving, but the mark of 122, carrying 10 stone isn't what warrants a truly ran race, and that is another race that can be discounted for the four year old. Having had a prep run at Longchamp in early September, placing fourth behind Sosie and Byzantine Dream, it may have been the soft ground which caused problems, and could be another problem, but is definitely the best option for me of the AOB duo.
Has Kalpana been written off too early?
Kalpana in the Juddmonte silks was the horse who was leading the market for the Arc prior to her run at Kempton, and now after falling to 12/1 looks like she has been written off completely already. An odd race which she should’ve won at Kempton is the only reason Andrew Blading’s young four year old has dropped way down in the market, and it is almost as if people have forgotten her true accolades.
Having finished second to Calandagan in the King George at Ascot after almost taking it to the house is arguably the best form in the entire Arc field, and finishing second to Whirl in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh is another piece of form which puts her way higher in the market in my opinion. Coming second to Whirl at the Curragh weighing 9st 12lbs can easily be seen as some very good form given the conditions, and how messy the race was in general, and the King George at Ascot is some of the best form a horse can have, comfortably beating the likes of multi group one winner Rebel’s Romance, and former St Ledger winner Jan Brueghel.
As far as form goes, and how ready Kalpana is, it doesn't look like the soft ground will be too much of an issue, she has the speed, she has the fillies weight allowance, making her one of the lighter horses in the field at 9st 2lbs, and she handles the trip as well as anyone, Kalpana is a big price, and has a very very good chance.
Which of the Wertheimer duo can bring it home for France?
The blue and white silks of Wertheimer have two very good horses lined up for the Arc on Sunday, and two who have been there and done that before. Sosie who is trained by Arc master Andre Fabre, and Aventure, last year's runner up trained by Christophe Ferland. The two who are currently very well backed in the market have as good a chance as anyone, and with both being Longchamp regulars, and Arc win isn't too far away, but which one has the better chance?
Aventure who cantered away to a one and a half lengths lead over Gezora at Longchamp last month was a big indicator about why she is joint favourite in the race, and having been just beaten by Bluestocking last year, Ferland will be very excited about his young four year olds chances. She, along with Kalpana have been runner up to King George winner Calandagan, however a three length advantage for Francis Graffard’s horse was too much for Aventure to handle, however ahead of the Arc on Sunday, she has the jockey in Maxime Guyon, she has the soft ground, she has the form, and she has the home track, what’s not to like about Aventure?
But, Andre Fabre who has won this race eight times in his career will have high hopes for Sosie who finished fourth in the race last year, and with this season showing lots of progression, there is plenty to be excited about. Sosie who finished last in the Coral Eclipse really didn't get too much of a chance to prove himself during a really messy race and hasn't been given enough credit since. Finishing second behind Japanese horse Byzantine Dream, beating Los Angeles and Arrow Eagle in his prep race in the Prix Foy last month, being drawn third is a big advantage for Fabre and Sosie, and similar to Aventure, having all the boxes ticked for the race, the low draw and track expertise could be enough to earn a ninth Arc victory for the master trainer.
Is it finally time the Japanese take the Arc home?
Orvefre, and Nakayama Festa are the two Japanese horses who have been the closest to earning Arc de Triomphe glory for Japan, however second place was all they could find, and now it is up to Japanese trio Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii, and Croix Du Nord to give Japan their hopes at winning the coveted race. Byzantine Dream being the favourite of the three, winning the Prix Foy beating Sosie and Los Angeles last month was massive, on soft ground under Oisin Murphy, the four year old will have a massive chance at Longchamp, and it seems a mile and a half wasn't too much of an issue. Showing a very impressive turn of foot, and great staying ability, one aspect of Byzantine Dreams chances in the Arc which most won't give notice to is the jockey. Having a British jockey who knows opposition horses, who knows the track, and knows how to operate on said tracks ins massive, and of the three Byzantine Dream looks like the horse who has a great chance, and has proved that the trip is fine, the slightly soft ground is doable, and the jockey is one who certainly knows what he’s doing.
Croix Du Nord on the other hand really impressed in his prep run at Longchamp, beating Francis Graffard's very interesting Daryz by a short head, however the speed and trip capabilities were there. Croix Du Nord looked the least happy with the slightly soft ground out of the three, but given a strong pace is set, and he gains good position, he could be in the mix. What really doesn't favour him is the draw, at 17 he is one of the furthest wide, and with a jockey who doesn't know the track all that well, navigating that width may be too much for Croix Du Nord.
And finally, the one who looked very special at Deauville, but is still an unopened book. Alohi Alii really impressed in the Prix Guillaume at Deauville back in August and hasn't run since, however the speed and turn of foot was something very special, beating the likes of Cualificar, and is the horse that probably raises the most eyebrows out of the three.
What does Francis Graffard have up his sleeve in Daryz and Gezora?
We all know that when Francis Graffard wants to win, he can, and Daryz for me is the one. Under Mickael Barzalona, a jockey who knows the track like the back of his hand, at 8st 12lbs due to the three year olds allowance, and arguably the most rapidly improving horse in the field. His big time test in the Juddmonte was not the best ride in the world by Barzalona, but was also a very messy, ungenuine, and untrue race, and Daryz has only bounced back since. Finishing second behind Croix Du Nord, the speed the young three year old showed to get within a neck was extremely impressive, and being a three time winner at Longchamp this season, Daryz is the perfect weapon for Graffard to deploy, and the horse which has really shown me why they have a very, very good chance.
But Graffard didn't stop there, because Gezora under Tom Marquand is another of his exciting prospects. Gezora comes in at bottom weight with Minnie Huak due to the three year old and fillies allowance, and has had some interesting form over a mile and a quarter and a mile and a half this season. Winning twice in a group two at Longchamp against some weak opponents, and then finishing just behind Aventure, it isn't time to write her off yet, and despite being the weaker of the two Graffard picks, the both have very respectable claims.
Cualificar only seems to be improving ever race
And finally, who can forget the Godolphin royal blue. Cualificar is Godolphin’s only horse in this year's Arc, and it is Andre Fabre’s shorter price, but still a very respectable Cualificar ridden by William Buick. Cualificar is a horse who has only been improving with time and upping in trip, and winning the Prix Niel just about wasn't too convincing, but was still a good indicator that with space, and with a steady gallop that the trip is no issue. Having recently beaten the likes of Trinity College, and really shown lots of improvement over the last few months, Godolphin's best chances are a good break, and space, something Buick didn't have at Longchamp, but still overcame the hump.
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